Oscar Betting Odds 2025: DraftKings’ Johnny Avello on Why Wagering Could Save the Oscars
Oscar viewership has lost more than half its audience in a decade, and DraftKings oddsmaker Johnny Avello thinks he knows one way to bring people back: give them skin in the game. DraftKings is now posting odds on Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Actress ahead of the 2025 ceremony, with “One Battle After Another” sitting at -400 to take the top prize.
Oscar Viewership Has Fallen by More Than 55% Since 2014
A Decade of Declining Ratings
The Academy Awards once commanded the kind of television audience that advertisers dream about. In 2014, more than 43 million Americans tuned in to watch the Oscars live, making it one of the most-watched non-sports broadcasts of the year. By 2024, that number had cratered to just over 18 million, a collapse of more than 55% in a single decade [1].
The decline is not a blip. It reflects a structural shift in how audiences consume entertainment, combined with growing indifference toward a ceremony that many viewers feel is disconnected from films they actually watch. The 2021 ceremony hit a record low of 9.85 million viewers, a moment that sent shockwaves through Hollywood and ABC, which holds the broadcast rights.
The ratings recovery since 2021 has been modest at best. While viewership climbed back above 18 million in 2024, the Academy Awards still trails far behind its peak years and struggles to compete with live sports, reality television, and streaming content for casual viewer attention.
Why Engagement Has Dried Up
Part of the problem is familiarity, or the lack of it. A Nielsen analysis of Oscar-nominated films consistently shows that Best Picture contenders reach a smaller percentage of the general public than they did in the 1990s and early 2000s, when blockbusters like “Titanic” and “Gladiator” competed for top honors. Today’s nominees often arrive in limited theatrical runs before streaming, limiting mass cultural exposure before the ceremony airs.
Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ Director of Race and Sports Operations and one of the most respected oddsmakers in the United States, believes the engagement gap is exactly where sports betting culture can intervene. His argument is straightforward: people watch sports more intensely when they have money on the outcome, and the same psychological principle applies to award shows.
DraftKings Posts Oscar Odds: “One Battle After Another” Leads at -400
Best Picture Odds Breakdown
DraftKings has opened betting markets on the 2025 Academy Awards across multiple categories, and the lines tell a clear story about where industry sentiment currently sits. “One Battle After Another,” the war epic directed by Edward Berger, holds the Best Picture favorite position at -400, meaning a bettor would need to risk $400 to profit $100 on that outcome [2].
A -400 line signals a market that has largely made up its mind. At those odds, the implied probability of “One Battle After Another” winning Best Picture sits at approximately 80%, a level of confidence that oddsmakers rarely assign to entertainment markets this far from the ceremony date. Avello notes that the film’s awards season momentum, including key guild wins, has driven the line to that position.
The SAG Awards, which represent the voting bloc of working actors, carry particular weight in Avello’s methodology. A SAG Award win for an ensemble cast is historically one of the strongest predictors of a Best Picture Oscar, and DraftKings adjusts its lines accordingly when those results come in.
Best Actor and Best Actress Favorites
In the acting categories, Michael B. Jordan leads Best Actor at -185, a line that reflects his strong awards season campaign but leaves meaningful room for competition. At -185, the implied probability of a Jordan win sits around 65%, which means the market still prices in a real chance for challengers.
Best Actress tells a different story entirely. Jessie Buckley sits at -3500 in that category, an extraordinary number that translates to an implied probability of roughly 97%. A -3500 line is almost unheard of in entertainment betting and signals that DraftKings sees the race as essentially decided based on current information [2].
Avello points to the cascading effect of precursor awards as the engine behind such lopsided lines. When a performer sweeps the Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG categories, the Oscar market responds with the kind of compression seen in Buckley’s current odds.
| Category | Favorite | DraftKings Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Best Picture | One Battle After Another | -400 |
| Best Actor | Michael B. Jordan | -185 |
| Best Actress | Jessie Buckley | -3500 |
Entertainment Betting Has Grown Steadily Since 2018 PASPA Repeal
The legal sports betting market in the United States did not exist at scale before May 2018, when the Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Association. That ruling opened the door for states to legalize wagering on their own terms, and the market has expanded rapidly since [3].
Entertainment betting, which covers award shows, reality television outcomes, and political events, occupies a distinct regulatory category from traditional sports wagering. DraftKings routes its Oscar markets through its prediction market component, which operates under a different regulatory framework than standard sportsbook offerings and allows participation in several US states and territories where traditional sports betting may face restrictions.
The prediction market structure is important context for anyone looking to participate. It means that availability varies by state, and bettors should verify their jurisdiction’s specific rules before placing any wagers. DraftKings lists eligible states on its platform, and the list does not cover all 50 states.
The broader entertainment betting category has attracted attention from major operators precisely because it creates engagement outside the traditional sports calendar. The Oscars air in late February or early March, a period when the NFL season has ended and the NBA and NHL playoffs have not yet begun. For sportsbooks, award show markets fill a genuine content gap and attract a demographic that may not typically engage with sports wagering.
What Oscar Betting Means for Online Casino and Gaming Players
For players already active on platforms like DraftKings, the Oscar markets represent a natural extension of the entertainment betting options that have grown alongside traditional casino and sportsbook products. If you already use DraftKings for sports or casino games, the prediction market interface for Oscar categories is accessible within the same ecosystem, requiring no separate account or deposit.
The odds structure in entertainment markets like these differs meaningfully from casino games. Unlike slots or table games where the house edge is fixed and mathematical, Oscar odds are set by oddsmakers like Avello based on available information, precursor awards, and market sentiment. That means the lines move as new information arrives, and a bettor who tracks awards season closely may find value in lines before they tighten.
Avello’s point about the SAG Awards influencing Michael B. Jordan’s -185 line is a practical example of how information-driven these markets are. Players who follow entertainment news and awards season coverage are engaging with a form of research that directly mirrors the handicapping process in sports betting. The skills transfer.
Key Takeaways
- Oscar viewership dropped from over 43 million in 2014 to just over 18 million in 2024, a decline of more than 55% in one decade [1].
- DraftKings oddsmaker Johnny Avello argues that entertainment betting creates personal stakes that drive viewer engagement with award shows.
- “One Battle After Another” is the current Best Picture favorite at -400 on DraftKings, implying approximately 80% probability of winning [2].
- Jessie Buckley holds the most lopsided line of any category at -3500 for Best Actress, reflecting near-total market consensus.
- Michael B. Jordan leads Best Actor at -185, a line Avello directly connects to his SAG Award performance.
- Oscar betting on DraftKings operates through its prediction market component, available in select US states and territories, not all 50 states.
- The Supreme Court’s 2018 PASPA repeal in Murphy v. NCAA created the legal framework that makes entertainment betting markets like these possible in the US [3].
Frequently Asked Questions
Where can I bet on the Oscars in the US?
Oscar betting is available through DraftKings’ prediction market component in several US states and territories. Availability is not universal across all 50 states, so you should check DraftKings’ platform directly to confirm whether your state is eligible before attempting to place a wager.
What are the current Oscar betting odds for Best Picture?
As of the current market, “One Battle After Another” leads Best Picture betting at -400 on DraftKings, according to oddsmaker Johnny Avello [2]. That line implies a roughly 80% probability of winning based on awards season momentum and precursor results.
How do Oscar odds work on DraftKings?
DraftKings posts American-style odds for Oscar categories, where a negative number like -400 shows how much you must risk to profit $100, and a positive number shows how much a $100 wager would return in profit. Lines move as precursor awards like the SAG Awards, BAFTAs, and Critics Choice results come in, reflecting updated market sentiment.
Why have Oscar ratings declined so much since 2014?
Oscar viewership fell from over 43 million in 2014 to just over 18 million in 2024 due to a combination of streaming fragmentation, nominees with limited theatrical exposure, and growing audience disconnect from the ceremony’s format [1]. The 2021 show hit a record low of 9.85 million viewers before partially recovering in subsequent years.
The Bottom Line
Johnny Avello’s thesis is simple and hard to argue with: people pay closer attention to things they have a stake in. The sports betting industry proved that principle at scale after 2018, and DraftKings is now applying it to one of television’s most storied but struggling annual events. Whether Oscar betting meaningfully moves the ratings needle remains to be seen, but the engagement logic is sound.
For the 2025 ceremony, the market has spoken clearly. “One Battle After Another” at -400, Jessie Buckley at -3500, and Michael B. Jordan at -185 represent a rare moment of near-consensus in what is usually a volatile entertainment market. Avello’s methodology, anchored in precursor awards and guild results, has produced lines that leave little room for surprise, which is itself a story worth watching as the ceremony approaches.
The Oscars may not recapture 43 million viewers overnight. But if betting markets give even a fraction of casual viewers a reason to watch until the final envelope opens, that is a win for everyone involved, including the oddsmakers who set the lines.
Check the Latest Oscar Betting Odds on DraftKings
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Sources
- Casino.org – Oscar viewership statistics showing decline from 43 million in 2014 to 18 million in 2024.
- Casino.org – DraftKings Oscar odds including Best Picture at -400, Best Actor at -185, and Best Actress at -3500, with commentary from Johnny Avello.
- Casino.org – Background on the 2018 PASPA repeal and the expansion of legal sports and entertainment betting in the United States.
