March Madness Best Bets: NCAA Tournament Friday Picks

Robert Harris

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March 20, 2026

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Caleb Wilfinger, Deputy Editor at Pickswise, opened March Madness 2026 with a 2-1 record on Thursday’s best bets and is back with three more NCAA Tournament picks for Friday’s 16-game slate on March 20. All three selections back underdogs, targeting specific statistical mismatches identified through BartTorvik data. The full 68-team bracket is live, and Friday features nearly 13 hours of nonstop college basketball.

Thursday’s 2-1 Record Sets the Stage for Friday

A loaded Friday slate with 16 games

After Thursday’s action wrapped up, Wilfinger confirmed a 2-1 record on his best bets, according to his analysis published at Pickswise [1]. Friday’s card is even bigger, with 16 games and nearly 13 hours of college basketball scheduled for March 20. That volume creates significant opportunity to find value across multiple matchups.

Wilfinger’s approach for Friday centers on underdogs in spots where the spread appears to overestimate the favorite. All three picks carry spreads of at least 3.5 points, with two sitting in double-digit territory. The selections span the Santa Clara vs Kentucky, Northern Iowa vs St. John’s, and Akron vs Texas Tech matchups.

The analytical framework behind the picks

Each pick leans on BartTorvik efficiency metrics, a publicly available college basketball analytics database. Wilfinger cites specific rankings for offensive efficiency, rebounding rate, tempo, and shooting percentages to build his cases. The methodology prioritizes statistical mismatches over narrative or seeding alone.

Santa Clara +3.5 vs Kentucky: Offense Meets a Leaky Defense

Why Santa Clara profiles as a live underdog

Wilfinger’s first best bet is Santa Clara Broncos +3.5 against the Kentucky Wildcats, available at BetMGM at -110 odds at time of publishing, and he rates it playable down to Santa Clara +3 [1]. He describes Santa Clara as a team he has been high on all season, pointing to wins over Minnesota, Xavier, Nevada, and McNeese State during the non-conference schedule. The Broncos also lost to St. Louis by just one point, signaling they compete against quality opposition.

Santa Clara ranks inside the top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 40 in 2-point percentage, per BartTorvik. The Broncos also rank 19th nationally in offensive rebounding rate, a metric that becomes especially relevant against a Kentucky defense ranked outside the top 150 in rebounding rate. Kentucky’s free-throw rate allowed sits at an abysmal 233rd nationally, per BartTorvik, which compounds the defensive vulnerability.

Wilfinger notes that Santa Clara’s pressure defense should force Kentucky into turnovers, an area the Wildcats have struggled with all season. If the pace increases, that benefits a Santa Clara team that likes to push tempo and generate early offense. Kentucky has also not shot well from beyond the arc this season, and the Broncos defend the 3-point line at a solid level.

Acknowledged risks in the pick

Wilfinger does flag concerns about Santa Clara’s high foul rate, noting that Kentucky should find success against the Broncos’ interior defense. He frames this as a game likely decided in the final minutes, which is why he sides with the underdog getting over a possession. The pick is not presented as a lock, but as a value play in a close game.

Northern Iowa +10.5 vs St. John’s: Defense and Pace Tighten the Spread

Northern Iowa’s elite perimeter defense is the key factor

The second best bet is Northern Iowa Panthers +10.5 against the St. John’s Red Storm at -105 odds, taken from a game preview published on March 18, and playable to Northern Iowa +9.5 [1]. Northern Iowa ranks 3rd nationally in 3-point percentage allowed, per BartTorvik, making them one of the most difficult teams in the country to shoot over from the perimeter. The Panthers have won 10 of their last 13 games and have played at a top 40 level nationally over the last six weeks.

Northern Iowa ranks 364th in adjusted tempo, meaning Ben Jacobson’s team plays one of the slowest, most deliberate styles in college basketball. Wilfinger argues that teams which shorten the game and emphasize each possession tend to keep tournament games close against higher-seeded opponents. That structural advantage makes a 10.5-point spread look inflated.

St. John’s presents a vulnerable offensive profile for Rick Pitino’s team. The Red Storm rank 191st in effective field goal percentage, 187th in 2-point percentage, and 214th in 3-point percentage, per BartTorvik. Those numbers are particularly damaging against a Northern Iowa defense that Wilfinger describes as fundamentally sound and unlikely to commit fouls that bail St. John’s out of bad possessions.

The transition game as St. John’s only escape valve

Wilfinger identifies transition offense as the primary path for St. John’s to generate easy buckets. If Northern Iowa’s deliberate pace prevents the Red Storm from getting out in transition, the inconsistent St. John’s offense could struggle significantly. He concludes this matchup has the makings of a defensive struggle and grabs the points with Northern Iowa.

Akron +8.5 vs Texas Tech: Veteran Experience Against an Overvalued Favorite

Akron’s third straight NCAA Tournament appearance matters

The third pick is Akron Zips +8.5 against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at -110 odds, available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing, and playable to Akron +7.5 [1]. Wilfinger frames Texas Tech as overvalued and potentially due for shooting regression. Akron, under John Groce, is making its third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance, giving the program institutional knowledge of this setting.

Akron is led by Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott in the backcourt, with veteran leaders described as present across the entire roster. The Zips boast one of the most efficient mid-major offenses inside 15 feet and can knock down outside shots at nearly a 40% clip, per Wilfinger’s analysis. He describes the offense as having few holes, which gives Akron a high floor in this matchup.

The case against Texas Tech centers on the idea that the Red Raiders are overvalued relative to their actual performance. Wilfinger suggests regression in shooting could bring the final margin closer than the spread implies. For sports bettors who follow college basketball closely, this type of regression-to-the-mean argument is a standard analytical tool when evaluating tournament spreads.

The broader pattern across all three picks

All three of Wilfinger’s Friday picks follow a consistent logic: identify a mid-major or smaller program with a specific statistical edge, then target a higher seed with a measurable defensive or offensive weakness. The picks are not random dart throws at underdogs but structured arguments built on efficiency metrics from BartTorvik. That analytical consistency is what separates this approach from casual bracket picking.

The table above summarizes the three Friday best bets from Wilfinger’s analysis, including the spread, odds, and sportsbook where each line was sourced at time of publishing [1]. Odds move, so always verify current lines before placing any wager. The playable thresholds Wilfinger sets, such as Santa Clara +3 and Northern Iowa +9.5, indicate the point at which he considers the value to have diminished.

What This Means for Sports Bettors Following March Madness

March Madness is one of the most heavily wagered sporting events in the United States, and the first round produces some of the sharpest line movement as public money floods in on higher seeds. Wilfinger’s picks specifically target situations where public perception inflates the favorite’s spread beyond what the underlying data supports. For anyone tracking college basketball betting picks this tournament, the BartTorvik metrics he cites are publicly accessible and worth cross-referencing independently.

Sports betting and online gaming share a common audience that values data-driven decision making over gut instinct. The same analytical mindset that separates disciplined bettors from casual ones applies across competitive gaming environments. Knowing the numbers behind a decision, whether it’s a spread or a strategy, is always the starting point.

Key Takeaways

• Caleb Wilfinger, Deputy Editor at Pickswise, went 2-1 on Thursday’s March Madness best bets before publishing his Friday picks [1].
• Santa Clara ranks inside the top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 19th nationally in offensive rebounding rate, per BartTorvik [1].
• Kentucky’s defense ranks outside the top 150 in rebounding rate and 233rd in free-throw rate allowed, per BartTorvik [1].
• Northern Iowa ranks 3rd nationally in 3-point percentage allowed and 364th in adjusted tempo, per BartTorvik [1].
• St. John’s ranks 191st in effective field goal percentage, 187th in 2-point percentage, and 214th in 3-point percentage, per BartTorvik [1].
• Akron is making its third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance under John Groce and shoots outside shots at nearly a 40% clip [1].
• Friday’s slate features 16 games and nearly 13 hours of college basketball on March 20, 2026 [1].

Frequently Asked Questions

The Bottom Line

Wilfinger’s three Friday picks share a clear thesis: the NCAA Tournament’s first round consistently produces inflated spreads on higher seeds, and teams with specific statistical edges can cover or win outright at a meaningful rate. Santa Clara’s offensive rebounding against Kentucky’s porous defense, Northern Iowa’s elite perimeter defense against St. John’s broken offense, and Akron’s veteran efficiency against an overvalued Texas Tech squad all represent targeted, data-backed arguments rather than blind underdog chasing.

The 2-1 Thursday start gives context but not certainty. Every pick carries risk, and spreads move between publication and game time. Cross-referencing the BartTorvik metrics Wilfinger cites is a practical step for anyone evaluating these plays independently before March 20’s action tips off.

Sources

1. [1]: Pickswise – March Madness First Round Friday Best Bets and Picks, authored by Caleb Wilfinger, published March 20, 2026