Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026: 25% Drop to $68K BTC?
- Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $90,605, facing potential downside risk.
- Technical analysis suggests BTC could fall 25% to test the $68,000 level, coinciding with the 200-week exponential moving average.
- Several crypto analysts and influencers support this bearish outlook, anticipating major support between $64,000 and $68,000.
Bitcoin’s price has experienced a turbulent ride, and the latest news indicates a potential downturn. Currently trading around $90,605 as of January 11, 2026, BTC is attempting a modest rebound after five consecutive days of declines. However, technical breakdowns suggest that the price could fall 25% below current levels. This article dives into the technical analysis and market sentiment surrounding this bitcoin price prediction, exploring why such a significant drop may be on the horizon.
BTC Price Action: Technical Analysis and Bearish Targets
Bitcoin remains trapped in a prolonged consolidation pattern, down approximately 28% from its October 2025 all-time high. A weekly chart technical breakdown reveals that bitcoin’s price is struggling. The price remains in the same consolidation pattern on the daily chart, and the 50-week moving average has been broken for the first time since October 2023.
According to this analysis, the $74,000 zone, defined by April 2025 lows, is the primary bearish target. However, a broader look at the weekly chart could extend this zone. The $68,000 level particularly catches attention. It represents the July 2024 highs, coinciding with the 200-week exponential moving average. Bitcoin’s price last tested this exponential moving average nearly three years ago.
This confluence of factors suggests bitcoin may fall 25% from current levels to test the $68,000 zone. The analyst expects reaccumulation after weak hands are shaken out, potentially paving the way for a return to growth. The current price remains significantly below the 200-day moving average, which sits at $106,421.
Analyst and Influencer Consensus: $64K-$68K Support Zone
The bearish view isn’t isolated. Multiple crypto influencers and analysts have published remarkably similar predictions, creating an emerging consensus around major support in the mid-to-high $60,000 range. James Wynn has targeted $67,000, aligning with the 200-day moving average on the weekly chart. Brannigan Barrett also expects $68,000 to be tested, referencing the 2024 election breakout level as major support. coko.nad outlines a multi-stage decline scenario, ultimately reaching $64,000-$66,000. These targets reinforce the potential for a significant correction.
Beyond technical analysis, several fundamental factors support further decline before bottoming. Despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, monetary conditions remain restrictive for risk assets. The dollar has strengthened, creating headwinds for dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin. Institutional forecasts show growing caution, and Digital Asset Treasury companies have largely exhausted their buying power.
Key Data Comparison
| Metric | Current Value (Jan 11, 2026) | April 2025 Lows | July 2024 Highs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $90,605 | $74,000 | $68,000 |
| Decline from Current Price | – | 17.5% | 25% |
| 50-week MA | Below | N/A | N/A |
| 200-week EMA | Well Above | Above | Coincides |
Fundamental Factors Affecting Bitcoin’s Price
Several fundamental factors are contributing to the potential downside for Bitcoin. The macro environment remains challenging. Despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, monetary conditions remain restrictive for risk assets. The dollar has strengthened against major currencies, creating headwinds for dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin. Equity markets show stretched valuations with ongoing concerns about artificial intelligence investment sustainability, factors that typically pressure Bitcoin given its high correlation to risk-on assets.
Further supporting the potential decline in bitcoin’s price, Institutional forecasts reflect growing caution among sophisticated market participants. Digital Asset Treasury companies that accumulated massive Bitcoin holdings during 2024-2025 have largely exhausted their buying power as valuations became unsupportive of additional capital raises. Bitcoin failure to test the 200-week exponential moving average for nearly three years represents an anomaly. Major bull markets experience periodic corrections to long-term moving averages.
Potential Bitcoin Price Targets and Market Cycle Dynamics
According to the technical analysis, Bitcoin’s downside targets break into two distinct levels. The primary target is $74,000, representing April 2025 yearly lows. This level acts as an initial reaccumulation zone where weak hands begin capitulating, representing a 17.5% decline from current levels. This is the first major test of whether buyers defend 2025 lows.
The extended target is $68,000, representing July 2024 local highs. This level coincides with the 200-week exponential moving average, untested for three years. Its historical significance served as a launchpad for the $23,000-$123,000 rally. A 24.9% decline from current levels would likely trigger maximum capitulation and a final flush. The $68,000 level represents a convergence of multiple technical factors: July 2024 resistance-turned-support, the critical 200-week EMA, and March-July 2024 consolidation peaks. This confluence creates a high-probability zone for trend reversal after capitulation.
Based on historical precedent and market cycle dynamics, the expected scenario at major support involves a multi-phase process. First a brief stabilization as some buyers defend April 2025 lows, followed by breakdown as selling pressure overwhelms demand. Then a rapid decline as stop-losses trigger and leveraged short positions liquidate, creating panic selling. Next, maximum fear and weak hand exits at 200-week EMA, creating classic \”V-bottom\” or extended base formation. Then institutional buyers and long-term holders accumulate aggressively at attractive valuations, absorbing selling pressure. Finally, a return to growth as technical structure improves, moving averages reclaim, and momentum shifts bullish. This process typically takes several weeks to months, suggesting Q1 2026 correction followed by Q2 2026 reaccumulation and potential Q3-Q4 2026 return to all-time high territory.
Historical Data vs. Current Bitcoin Price
To better understand the potential severity of the predicted downturn, here’s a comparison of key Bitcoin price levels:
This comparison provides a clearer picture of where Bitcoin stands in relation to its recent price history and key support levels.
Deep Dive: Market Analysis
The current market sentiment suggests a potential continuation toward the $68,000-$74,000 support zone. Brannigan Barrett suggests “continue consolidation range between 80-94k for a few more weeks” before breakdown, while coko.nad outlines 1.5-2 month timeline to final lows. Breaking below the 50-week MA signals a correction phase rather than a full bear market. Testing the 200-week EMA at $68,000 is necessary for trend reset and healthy market structure. Breaking below 50-week MA (first since October 2023) signals correction phase rather than full bear market. Testing the 200-week EMA at $68,000 is necessary for trend reset and healthy market structure.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the new prediction for Bitcoin?
The primary target is $74,000, with an extended support target at $68,000. This represents a potential 25% decline from the current $90,605 levels.
Will Bitcoin hit $500,000 in 2025?
While some experts predict Bitcoin could reach $1 million in the coming years, a $500,000 target for 2025 seems unlikely given the current market conditions and recent corrections.
How much will 1 Bitcoin be worth in 2026?
According to the technical analysis, Bitcoin is forecast to trade between $103,422.69 and $153,147 in 2026. The average price is expected to be around $119,702.39.
How much will $1 Bitcoin be worth in 2030?
Based on current predictions, $1 of Bitcoin purchased today could be worth approximately $277,964 by 2030, assuming Bitcoin trades at an average price of $283,204 at that time.
Conclusion
While the short-term outlook for Bitcoin suggests a potential correction, the cryptocurrency market has proven resilient in the past. Whether bitcoin will test the $68,000 support or find support higher remains to be seen. Keep an eye on the 50-day and 200-day EMAs to better understand where bitcoin’s price may be heading. As always, it is important to consider the risks and rewards in the cryptocurrency market and make decisions best suited to your own financial situation.
